With 84 percent of emerging market trade and finance done in US dollars, those banks with better access to those dollars are getting ahead of the competition, according to a new report from Greenwich Associates. But that competition is working harder to get those dollars by increasing services in the area.
“US banks’ virtually unlimited access to [dollar] funding will give a powerful boost to banks such as Citi, J.P. Morgan and Bank of America Merrill Lynch,” Greenwich said. However, “non-U.S. banks are working to attract the USD deposits they need to fund these businesses by offering much more competitive corporate deposit rates and by building out cash management franchises in both the United States and in the emerging markets.”
Ultimately, this will work to treasurers’ advantage as they look for banking support in fast growing areas in Latin America and Asia, as banks vie for business.
Historically, Greenwich said in its report, there were three avenues to finance USD assets available to banks: USD retail deposits, USD corporate deposits, and finally, USD funding via loans, money market or bond markets. With that third option all but gone, many European banks, which have traditionally relied money markets for USD funding for structured finance, commodity and trade finance businesses in the emerging markets, are finding it hard to compete. The breakdown in some of these traditional funding sources “are straining the emerging market business models of banks such as BNP Paribas and Société Générale, which have traditionally dominated structured trade and commodity finance in the developing markets, and are placing other non-U.S. competitors under increasing pressure.”
While the Citis, JPMs and BofAs are exploiting these disruptions, other, non-US banks are still staying in the game by offering more and better services. “Robust cash management businesses in these areas already deliver relatively steady USD flows to banks such as HSBC, Standard Chartered Bank and Deutsche Bank,” Greenwich said.
These banks, along with their better positioned US peers, will dominate emerging markets businesses over the long term, and will be further boosted by global financial regulation, Greenwich said. “Basel III rules, combined with reduced money-market funding, virtually ensure that banks competing in the emerging markets will turn to end investors through the securitization of bank finance facilities, loans and other forms of structured funding,” Greenwich said in its report. “As this process plays out, banks with strong institutional distribution capabilities in the United States—including some non-U.S. banks like Deutsche Bank—will gain another powerful advantage in the emerging markets.”
For those institutional investors and their treasurers, it looks like they continue to have the upper hand.