New Fitch survey reveals more woe and possibly more LTRO ahead for Europe’s banks.
Investors remained worried about the outlook for Europe’s banks, suggesting the conditions will get worse before they get better, a Fitch survey reveals. And many respondents expect banks to need a repeat of the ECB’s 1tn euro long-term refinancing operations (LTROs).
A majority of investors (53 percent), said Fitch in its Senior Fixed-Income Investor Survey, believe fundamental credit conditions for Europe’s banks will continue to deteriorate, which indicates that the impact of the temporary relief spurred by the earlier LTRO assistance has waned. As such, 82 percent of respondents say banks will need another LTRO within the next two years.
Fitch said it more likely that southern European banks will need the assistance in the next year. “We do not project that another LTRO will be needed this year but many banks in southern Europe have become dependent on ECB facilities as their only real source of wholesale funding,” Fitch said. “If they are unable to delever in time, they will probably need some assistance to be able to pay back their LTRO take up.”
What will this mean for lending in Europe? It doesn’t look good for speculative-grade companies, according to Fitch. “Views on commercial bank lending standards turned more negative, reversing the more optimistic trend of the last two quarters since the December and February LTROs,” Fitch said. According the results, 38 percent of respondents said lending standards for spec-grade companies will tighten further, with 56 percent “expecting them to remain moderately tight.”
But if it’s bad for speculative grade companies, it’s not much better for the banks themselves. The Fitch survey also revealed that 24 percent of investors think banks face the most difficult refinancing challenge in several quarters, although level is lower than it was October 2011 when almost half of respondents felt banks would face a difficult refi environment.