Depositors withdrew more than $100 billion from the largest US lenders for the week ended January 9. While no one is exactly sure what’s behind the extraction, observers and many bank earnings calls say the probable cause is the expiration of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s Transaction Account Guarantee Program, or TAG.
According to the Federal Reserve, net withdrawals at the 25 largest US lenders totaled $114.1 billion the week ended January 9, pushing deposits down to $5.37 trillion. According to reports, the size of the drop was second only to the decline after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The Fed said in a report in December that TAG deposits totaled $1.6 trillion
The Fed itself said this might happen. In its quarterly survey of senior credit officers (4Q 2012), most nonfinancial companies said they would exit deposit accounts once TAG ended (see related story here). However, although sizeable, the outflow doesn’t represent the “demand shock” to money market funds that some said was possible. But there has been a healthy increase in inflows to MMFs nonetheless. According to Investment Company Institute, MMFs saw net inflows increase in Q4 2012, rising approximately $89.1 billion to $2.7 trillion. Breaking down that number, ICI said government funds increased by $26.9 billion, tax exempt funds increased by $16.3 billion, and prime funds increased by $46.0 billion.
While big, experts say it’ll probably be absorbed without a problem. And given the political uncertainty around the debt ceiling and the budget, companies might just take their time determining what to do with the cash. “It takes time to figure out where you want to go with your money,” said one money manager. Treasurers, he added, already have plenty of other year-end things to deal with so if they’re comfortable with the risk of keeping money where it is – be it in MMFs or at banks it feels are secure – they’ll keep it there.
Still, many banks said in earnings calls that deposits fell in the quarter. Citi said it saw “an expected decline in deposits during the fourth quarter, reflecting the runoff of episodic deposits which came in at the end of the third quarter as well as the expiration of the … TAG program.” State Street said pretty much the same thing. In its earnings call, the money manager said it saw approximately $7 billion of deposits leaving its balance sheet since December 31, 2012 expiration. “Given the expiration of TAG and absent any significant US debt ceiling impacts, we expect to invest the remaining customer deposits in either highly liquid money market-type assets,” State Street said.
Meanwhile, Federated Investors, one of the largest MMF administrators, said it saw much of the cash come to them and other MMFs. In its Q4 results call, Federated said the TAG program “likely accounted for some part of the money market fund asset growth for us and for the industry.” It added that investors are still bullish on MMFs overall. “It’s obvious that money market investors have remained confident about the product as it’s presently constructed: Dollar in, dollar out; uninsured; transparent; invested in a diversified portfolio of high-quality securities; and supported by proper accounting and market valuations,” said John Christopher Donahue, Federated’s president and CFO.