Uncertainty and low rates are prompting US companies to build cash at remarkable rates, according to a report from Fitch Ratings. Corporate cash holdings have grown about 250 percent since 2000, and 60 to 80 percent in the last five years. And although companies have become leaner, meaner and more productive over the past decade – allowing them to boost cash — other factors are at play.
“Even accounting for the substantial increase in business activity over the past decade, cash has increased impressively,” Fitch said in a special report, “outpacing the growth in corporate revenues or earnings by 50 to 80 percent since 2000, and 30 to 50 percent since year-end 2007.”
Two big factors.
Although conventional wisdom is that low lending rates, lack of demand and few places to put cash – aside from dividends, stock buybacks and the occasional M&A deal – are fueling cash balances, there are other factors: inflation and capacity use.
“Inflation is at very low levels, lowering the opportunity cost of holding cash versus inventory, for example, making the assumption that the value of inventory held would keep pace with inflation,” Fitch said. “Second, capacity utilization is still somewhat below previous peaks and below the level (80%-85%) historically associated with expansions.”
Current pace flat, but…
For the most part, corporate cash levels are now beginning to slow on average. That’s because some business sectors, for instance industrial, have seen their cash balances decline while tech and pharmaceutical companies have seen increases in cash holding (much of it overseas).
Still, over the long term cash holdings should continue their long-term trend of outpacing business activity. Fitch earlier in the year reported that cap expenditures have slowed and expectations that are that that trend will continue. So after a brief respite, companies will continue to build cash.