Back at the end of 2010 with the threat of an increase in dividend taxes looming companies got aggressive about offering special dividends. This year should be no different, according to Markit.
“With the experience of 2010 as a backdrop, strong corporate balance sheets, and management willingness to distribute capital to drive shareholder returns, Markit expects special dividends in 2012 to yield a similar, if not more aggressive, trend as 2010,” the financial information services company wrote on its DataExplorers Web site.
This time one could say the threat is more real because it is part of the infamous fiscal cliff – a mix of tax increases and spending cuts set to kick in on Jan 1 – that threatens to push the US into recession. In terms of dividend taxes, they will rise from their current level of 15 percent to a more than double 39.6 percent (higher for upper income households) – which is likely to occur regardless of what happens to the rest of the issues contained in fiscal cliff.
According to S&P, 173 US companies have issued special dividends so far in November, more than double the pace of November 2011 and well above any other November going back at least eight years. The lengths that companies are going to offer up the dividends is reflected in Costco’s recent announcement of a $7 special dividend; the total will work out to be $3bn.
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In 2010, the higher tax threat prompted just 50 companies across industries to declare a special dividend in Q4 of that year, Markit said. This was a big jump from a normal year’s average of about 31 announcements, Markit said. Interestingly, more than a third of the special dividends came from companies with no established dividend program while a vast majority came from small cap companies.
With companies holding more than $2 trillion (which is growing by the minute) in cash, and investment options limited, those dividends will likely continue to surge as the year end approaches. Still, not all companies think dividends are a good idea. One meeting participant at a NeuGroup meeting in the spring said that dividends (as well as stock buybacks) just reflected an “inability of management to find better uses of cash.” This is an echo of Warren Buffet who famously said last year that the company would only pay a dividend when it has run out of investing ideas.