Corporates to the (Stock Market) Rescue?
Buyback love is in the air. Confronted with weak earnings, interest-rate uncertainty and in some cases activist prodding, companies are ramping up plans to repurchase shares in record amounts. According to S&P Capital IQ, stock buybacks are up more than 85% over the past decade, and Goldman Sachs predicts buybacks will top $1 trillion alone in 2016.
Among the names that have announced buybacks in their most recent earnings reports include GM, Prudential Financial, Tyson Foods, 3M, Symantec, Gilead Sciences, MetLife, Comcast and a host of others. And most of have also announced dividend increases, too. According to Birinyi Associates, through Feb. 3, companies have announced buyback plans of more than $85 billion. And with 75% of companies reportedly ending their blackout period as of the end of trade Friday, they can now begin buying stock.
While many experts decry the use of excess capital to buy back stock, it’s sometimes the best strategy at a particular moment. For instance, at a September 2015 meeting of The NeuGroup’s Treasurers’ Group of Thirty, several members noted that skyrocketing valuations are making acquisitions increasingly hard to justify, which raises the question of just what metrics acquirers are using these days. So given this situation, perhaps the best course of action, since slowing economies globally limit companies’ growth prospects, appears to be returning excess capital to shareholders via buybacks (and dividends, too)
And if you do embark on the buyback path? One takeaway from the T30 meeting was to really grill Your buyback broker. Because corporates may not have resources for post-trade analysis, they should nevertheless ask their brokers pointed questions. For instance, do they prioritize trading venues offering rebates? To what extent do they internalize trades in their own dark pools? By the way, corporates shouldn’t tell brokers to avoid dark pools, they should instead instruct them to mix up the time and size of trades.
One question that may arise as companies consider or execute a buyback is whether they should lever up to do so. According to participants at the T30 meeting, debt capacity is still available for share repurchases, but sizable leveraged buybacks have not been seen. Also, announcements of big buyback plans are no longer packing the usual share-price punch, which might mean they will not deliver on growth expectations set by the failed acquisitions they often follow.
Nonetheless, buybacks can be a tricky proposition. That is, how do you know you’re not going to be the next GoPro, which recently repurchased stock at what it thought was a low back in November only to see share price fall another 60% since then?