NeuGroup peer group members discuss the direct method for cash forecasting vs. going indirect.
Cash-flow forecasting is a perennial nemesis for some companies. But one company in NeuGroup’s Treasurers’ Group of Thirty has been utilizing a forecast model that has had a successful run and it was explained to the group.
One key takeaway was that the model goes “direct.” That is, the treasurer favors direct-method cash flow over the indirect method. The direct method uses the tangible numbers of all upcoming cash receivables and payables et al to forecast the movement of cash in and out of the business. He had experience in this approach having implemented it at a company he worked at previously. Despite looking more than a quarter out, here’s the reasoning:
- Since the company runs a low margin businesses and liquidity is unpredictable, treasury wants to see the company’s cash flows and cash balances 13 weeks ahead.
- To perform the forecasts, the company moved from spreadsheets to Hyperion’s performance management software.
In so doing so, more than a dozen businesses units submit a standard template of requested information. Corporate treasury lets each business use its own methodology to calculate the template numbers and will only get involved if forecasts are off significantly. Every week the businesses provide a summary of actual numbers and forecasts for the prior week, to see where there may be differences and explain them.
Direct-method cash flow is done on a book basis rather than a bank basis, so the cash balance at the end of each month should match up with the company’s general ledger. Treasury requests divisions show their general ledger balances and the direct-method results, and they should tie, allowing treasury to consolidate the results.
Data is also submitted on a weekly basis for the direct method, compared to quarterly for indirect, so it “gives you the kind of real-time changing in your forecasting of free cash flow,” the treasurer said. He added that treasury has been able to predict the company’s free cash flow — a big advantage — and it would be able to forecast not only cash flow but cash balance as its year-end approached.
This direct method does however employ a little “indirectness.” After one fellow member noted that his firm finds the indirect method more accurate for forecasts beyond a quarter, the presenting member acknowledged that his company uses the indirect method to set the target, i.e., where the company wants to be, but then employs the direct-method model provides the direction to get there (and surpass it).
Finally, tone at the top matters. This means that companies considering the implementation of direct-method cash forecasting really need to have the CFO aboard, to preclude the inevitable challenges from the business units. If the company hires a consulting firm to implement the new system, make the consultancy truly understand what is needed so it doesn’t impose its own inappropriate requirements. The presenting member learned this lesson eventually and had to jump in to fix it.