If you travel to China, and specifically Shanghai, you are no doubt struck by the stark contrast in appearance between the old and the new, which stare at each other across Huangpu River. This contrast is a testament to the old, lesser developed China and the new China working to aggressively move further into the modern world.
And if you have the opportunity to meet with treasury leaders and CFO’s from a the variety of companies and industries in the region, along with bankers from all over the world and financial consultancy professionals from companies like PwC and Deloitte, you will hear that opportunities are abundant. China’s population is becoming more affluent and desirous of western products and ways and it is clear that Shanghai at least, is a bustling and booming city. And MNCs are doing booming business. General Motors recently announced that November car sales in China hit a new record.
Still, in speaking with finance leaders, bankers and consulting firms individually and in observing the conversations in NeuGroup peer group meetings it becomes apparent that in the midst of the growth and opportunity optimism is an undercurrent of concern and caution. China’s economy is in a structural transition that caused a widespread slowdown in 2015.
And this slowdown is having repercussions throughout the world, particularly in the commodities sector. For example, Anglo American’s recently announcement that it will sell up to 60 percent of its mines and lay off 85,000 employees, partly due to slowing demand in China. One might rethink the adage about country sneezes and global colds; now it could be “When China sneezes, the world catches a cold.”
But business slowdowns come and go and every company deals with them. Another concern is China’s two-pronged campaign to clean up corruption and strengthen China’s competitive position in the world. Reasonable, if not noble, goals to be sure; but the means to these ends sometimes have unforeseen consequences:
Taking company financial data. The era of “big data” is giving rise to an egregious overstepping of boundaries. China’s tax authorities have begun asking for the CFO’s password to the ERP system.
When granted, this allows them not only to see large amounts of confidential data but also to copy the data onto a flash drive and walk away with it. These auditors and their staff are well-versed in Oracle and SAP. The slowdown in the Chinese economy gives reason to believe China’s tax authorities will continue to look for ways to further extract revenue and control outcomes through taxation.
Taking company customer data. Banks and internet companies have been subjected to rules that they must store data about their customers in China, in China. This has been interpreted by some to scope in firms beyond pure banks and internet companies.
There were also questions about cloud storage: if you are using Alibaba’s cloud storage solution, does that necessarily mean the data is in China? The potential necessity to ring-fence data pertaining to China also becomes a concern for ERP considerations. Some are considering replacing the China instance of the system with one outside China. Would the rules require them to continue to maintain an instance or mirror in China for compliance purposes?
Personal liability for bankers.
As China has reformed, its regulatory framework it has also shifted the burden of compliance from bank customers to the bank itself and even made the individual bankers approving a given transaction or structure personally liable to ensure the rules are followed. It used to be that say for an L/C, Chinese authorities asked for six different pieces of documentation from customers and bankers reviewed them and, if they look ok, the L/C was approved.
Now the PBOC says choose one and we will hold you to account that it is in compliance with the rules. It is hard to delight the customer when you are personally held to account that they are in full compliance and might go to jail if you are wrong. That is a real game-changer, especially when you consider that China issues some 300-400 new rules a year.
These are just a few scenarios that have surface in discussions and peer group meetings and can clearly be cause for an undercurrent of anxiety for those with organizational responsibility in China.
Silver Lining?
But there is a silver lining in the pause of frenzied growth, in that it is allowing companies to focus on process change, optimization and efficiency initiatives that should have been done, but which they had no time for while trying to keep pace before. One CFO noted implementing a supply chain finance program, as an example, and because of the growth slowdown found suppliers more readily willing to be on-boarded as their access to working capital got dryer.
While everyone wants to see China’s growth continue, a pause in the pace of change helps everyone regain their bearings and position themselves for more sustainable growth going forward. And according to one banker on a beautiful day in Shanghai, the slowdown in factory output has resulted in clearer skies.