Recent studies show companies stilling holding cash and staying conservative about investing, but that may change.
Companies are accumulating more cash and holding onto it in the form of conservative investments. That’s according to recent surveys, including those from SunGard and the AFP, as well as a survey of treasury practitioners in the NeuGroup’s Assistant Treasurers’ Group of Thirty. But there is a sign of thawing, as respondents in the SunGard and AFP surveys indicated that they would slow their cash accumulation in the months ahead.
According to SunGard’s Corporate Cash Investment Study for 2013, more companies are holding larger cash balances for working capital financing, to finance capital investment or mergers and acquisitions, and to pay down debt and pay dividends to shareholders. However, few companies are holding cash for future slowdowns, the study. In all, “43 percent of companies increased the amount of surplus cash held, more than a third of which had seen a significant increase,” SunGard said.
In the AFP survey, which was underwritten by State Street Global Advisors, companies were also seen to be significantly increasing cash positions, with the outlook a bit more positive. Quarter to quarter, the AFP’s indicator increased to +19, “its highest reading since January 2012.” The AFP said companies are accumulating cash “defensively.” Nonetheless, looking ahead, the AFP’s indicator for “expected cash holdings” in the fourth quarter of 2013 “dropped to +6 from +14 in the previous report. This means companies are expect to “slow their pace of cash accumulation in the final three months” of the year.
Conservative bias
In the meantime, companies are being careful with the cash they have been accumulating. At a recent Assistant Treasurers’ Group of Thirty meeting, members rated themselves as either “very conservative” (42 percent) or “moderately conservative” (53 percent), with one member rating themselves at “moderately aggressive.”
Nonetheless, as revealed at the meeting, many companies are getting to the “enough is enough” threshold. One company that actually passed that threshold decided to take action. This company, a tech firm with lots of cash, added duration, lowered credit criteria and added riskier asset classes.
Specifically, the maximum average duration went from six months to two years; the long-term ratings floor went from A to BBB; and asset classes added include callable bonds, ABS (auto loans only), and floating rate notes. The company also carved out a small sliver of about $100 million for a hedge-fund type strategy. Next on the horizon is the possible inclusion of equities.
Other companies in the group indicated they may eventually follow suit. Some can certainly loosen up their ratings constraints to earn some extra yield without scaring the board. By all accounts, low interest rates will be around for a while longer, so perhaps more will open up policies further.